We have seen all sorts of movies talking about the rise of machines and how our own creations can lead to our downfall. One movie that comes to mind is “The Terminator”. “The Terminator” is a movie about a machine that comes from the future to try to destroy us in order to prevent the future. Like in any movie we have our protagonist that is a human that is here to defend. They go at it back and forth until a conclusion is reached. It is the perfect depiction of what I’m going to talk about in this essay: that the rise of automation could potentially give us a lot of problems in the future.
We mindlessly go to the grocery store and check out whatever we have in our cart. We scan all of our products on this electronic machine without giving it much thought. However, that machine could spell trouble for us. Yes, we do have a lady or man monitoring the machine making sure the robot has not made a mistake, but how long will it take until those five machines replace a single person, and sooner or later completely take over?
Manufacturing is a sector that has been devastated by automation. Since 2000 people in these industries have dwindled down to a small few. The number of people that were unemployed were around 28% or 5 million people for manufacturing jobs. Susan Houseman, a writer from foreign affairs, has many ideas of what might have contributed to the loss of jobs in the manufacturing sector (Houseman 1). Susan states that “In 1953, manufacturing accounted for 35 percent of private sector employment. By 2016, that figure had fallen to under ten percent(Houseman 2).” In this same article, she shows us a graph she also ended up showing us a graph of how productivity kept on going up and up every year in manufacturing. Most economists would say that this is something that only automation could have done.
One of the fundamental issues with the progression of automation is that it could lead to job loss. It is not just people that are doing repetitive tasks that could be replaced, it is everybody employed in that industry. The position they will fill first are the repetitive task, but they will later grow more advanced as time progresses. No one is safe, and this includes engineers, educators, and lawyer. We will first build machines that do simple jobs like build iPhone cases. Then later we will want machines that can think about future designs and implement them. Then later we will want machines that will repair itself and build a stronger version of itself. That is when the limitation of that machine will be endless.
We will have leaders that will continue to demand innovation, but it could lead to our demise. We will see countries like China continue to innovate while we take step back due to our own fears. Rob Waugh is write for telegrapgh.co who has done research on china new latest tech revolution. Waugh writes “China’s decision to invest heavily in technology, both at home and abroad, means that it is slowly but surely working its way up the value-added ladder, and the West can learn from this collaborative approach in order to better compete(Waugh 3).” China is advancing at a rapid pace and it going to be hard to keep up. Our country will become second to those countries and later we will have a new leader. A new leader that will take on these companies and push the boundaries of these machines. These machines will resemble humans in their ability to think, and sooner or later, there will be no need for people to work in factories or in retail stores. Everything will be automated.
The job loss will be unlike any other. The economy will crash and will struggle to gain traction again. People won’t be able to afford food because there will not be any jobs. All hope will seize to exist and only the self-sustaining countries will still have feet to stand on.
Companies like Amazon that have already constructed their own grocery store that is fully automated. People go in the store get whatever they want and they simply walk out. Then Amazon charges their card. Dennis Green from Business Insider writes, “Amazon first announced its Amazon Go project in 2016. The first store didn’t open until 2018, January. There are now four Amazon Go stores in operation. Three of them are in Seattle and one of them is in Chicago. Reportedly they want to open at least 3,000 stores in three years (Green 1).” Green really makes it clear that technology is advancing at a rapid pace. It is truly an innovation unlike any other, but it is also scary. Scary, because it puts people’s fear into perspective and gives us a depiction of what it will be like in the future and this will be a future where machines will pave the way, not man.
Let’s go back to the story of the “The Terminator.” It didn’t take long to realize that robots didn’t play a good part in the movies. People can sort of tell what got us to that point.
What got us to that point is our own willingness to keep innovating. They have released around 6 “Terminator” movies and none of them have a good role for machines and AI. We started giving machines things like emotions, and boom, we were doomed. It wasn’t until we got help from the future in “Terminator 2” that we stood a fighting chance. Yes, people argue the fact that we did have one hero and that was Arnold but real life doesn’t always have a happy ending.
There is also the movie “Extinction.” The movie was interesting because we first start off with an alien invasion that humans try to fight off. It wasn’t until later that people realized that the invaders were actually humans from the past coming to retake their land. The people that were brainwashed into thinking that they were humans were actually machines. Where we created artificially intelligent robots and, they eventually ended up taking over the world. The craziest part of the movie was that they thought they were humans all along and they perceived us as aliens.
It is a similar mindset to what people had in America between 1619-1963. When slavery was still around and an African was only worth a third of a person. Frederick Douglas is an African American who learned how to read and write at a young age. He paved the way for many African American during his time. Frederick Douglas wrote in his book, “I didn’t know I was a slave until I found out I couldn’t do the things I wanted.( Belcher 1)” In other words, African Americans weren’t treated as equals and were kept in captivity. Americans at that time didn’t perceive them as people and eventually, we realized that everyone was equal even if they look different. Now think of that problem , but ten times worse. Machines won’t see us as people but as enemies.
There are people out there that actually think automation might not cause job loss because there will be a lot of jobs for people to work with machines. Author Bhattacharyya Rica says, “Salary levels will go up due to the specialization of skillsets and the acute dearth of talent qualified in new capabilities in India and the world over( Rica 2).” The only problem is: how long will this last? How long will it last until machines can fix each other and there is no need for a human to fix machines? There is also the problem that salaries can go up, but later normalize due to the high amount of people pursuing those roles.
Ziprecruiter is a company that has
been around for a while and they are known for providing people with the
fastest way of recruiting. It is as simple as one click and done. They are a
very successful company and have conducted a study to find out that jobs aren’t
being affected currently because of low unemployment. Ziprecruiter would say
things like,” ZipRecruiter’s nationwide
data shows 60% of job seekers believe fear around robots taking away jobs are
overhyped, while 2 in 5 employed job seekers (41%) believe their current job
will be automated within their lifetime.( Job Seekers 2)” They had tons of data
backing them up ; the only problem was that they used their own data by saying,
“Zipcruiter’s nationwide data.” They put the data together based on what they
found out from their own website, but they didn’t realize people who visit
their site have certain biases. People who visit Ziprecruiter are often looking
for engineering jobs and are pretty Tech-savvy. Engineering jobs aren’t going
to be filled by automation as of yet. The people who feel like they are being
impacted by automation are factory workers, who aren’t going to be looking to Ziprecruiter for jobs.
Kirsten Gillibrand is a United States senator who is tackling some of the issues related to automation. Congressional Documents and Publications provide information like, “Gillibrand’s legislation would expand this program to help protect workers who lose their jobs due to automation so that they can get the skills and training they need to be prepared for high-tech jobs of the future.( As Automation Continues 2)” They realize they need to support the skills of workers for them to keep up with the growing technology. They would also say, “An estimated $5.9 billion in annual wages could be lost due to automation in the Central New York region.” Our government have come to a realization that it is going to be an uphill battle against automation. Companies aren’t going to care if people are laid off, just as long as they profit.
It also begs the question of why do we innovate? Why do we strive for perfection? Why are we trying to be better than the next country or company? It is because we don’t want to be overtaken by them. That is part of the reason why we have military bases all over the world. Winston Churchill said, “We sleep safely at night because rough men stand ready to visit violence on those who would harm us.( A Quote 1)” Winston Churchill’s ideals are the same thing that led to our military expansion; a lack of trust for whom someone does not know. We don’t trust anyone around and more importantly we certainly don’t trust machines. President Trump wrote/tweeted, “I don’t know about you, but I don’t want
Albert Einstein to be my pilot. I want great flying professionals that are allowed to easily and quickly take control of a plane!( Singman 1)” he tweeted this after a deadly crashed that killed 157 people and it was later found that the same didn’t have a pilot. Nations not long after that stopped all flights from that particular company. It further supports my point that people have a lack of trust for machines. It’s terrible what happened during the crash but supports what I’ve been saying. It is hard to trust machines because they have no emotions as of yet. They don’t care if people die on a plane crash because they weren’t programmed. People prefer a person operating that plane, not a machine.
There are solutions to the problem that automation causes. If the problems gets out of hand and the robots end up taking most of the world’s jobs, we could pursue something called universal basic income. It is a strategy that gives everyone a wage to live off of for not doing any work. A person could take on multiple hobbies and never have to worry about work again if he or she doesn’t wish. If people do get jobs they will likely be earning more money than they originally would have without universal basic income. Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla says it “will be necessary over time if AI [artificial intelligence] takes over most human jobs.( Clifford 1)” He is currently the head of two of the most prestigious Tech companies to work for SpaceX and Tesla. He supports universal income because we genuinely cannot compete against machines if they take over.
There are different versions of basic income. There is periodic basic income which is paid in regular intervals. Another kind is individual income, which is paid to a single person and not a household. A third kind is universal income, which was mentioned earlier, is where everyone gets an income. Lastly, there is also unconditional basic income, which is given to an individual without doing any work.
Universal basic income, defined as “Universal basic income (UBI) is a model for providing all citizens of a country or other geographic area with a given sum of money, regardless of their income, resources or employment status. The purpose of the UBI is to prevent or reduce poverty and increase equality among citizens.( About Basic 1)” There are many forms of basic income like individual basic income which give money to an individual and not a household. There is also basic income for people who are on welfare only.
Kurzgesagt Nutshell is a youtuber who created a video on UBI. Nutshell says “ We currently have systems to give money to poor people in order to get them out of poverty, but it is often a trap (Nutshell).” The current welfare system we have only motivates people to do nothing. If the government agreed to give $1,000, people would go ahead and try to earn more than if this amount was taken away from them. The government also pressures people to take any job that’s available rather than jobs that people really want as Kurzgesagt Nutshell point out in his video.
There are some issues with universal basic income though. What if people start getting lazy as a result of UBI? What if everyone didn’t have a need to get up and go to work every morning? It’s sort of like the thing that motives the gazelle to run away from the cheetah. It is because they fear death that they run away so fast. If there is no longer fear in society because people are already taken care of, it could lead to laziness. It is only natural.
People have also raised concerns about who should pay for universal income and will it be expensive? There has been some research done and it has pointed to say that an increase in everyone salary by $1000 a month would actually increase the GDP by 2% because people will have more money to spend(Nutshell). There could be many people that could be in charge of paying for UBI. We could tax the rich even more in order to pay for UBI or we can even tax everyone’s transactions.
Nations have already started applying the idea of universal basic income. Finland , for example, made an effort to see if universal income could be applied. The reason being is because they wanted to see if it would help an ever-growing population and people who could not find jobs. Finland’s minister of finance says, “We have to reform our society in order to activate people to reach a higher employment rate and to save the welfare state.( Radu 3)” It is a sign that universal basic income wasn’t really working for them and the best solutions for them was to gain skills in the workforce.
We have to think of a workaround to combat laziness. Perhaps if everyone gets paid maybe the ones that do not have jobs would struggle a lot more to earn their keep. We just can’t be all optimistic and say that everyone will get up and be motivated to find jobs. It’s like the one student that says he is going to wait until break to study but never does. Instead, he is met with a ticking time bomb of doom (the deadline) and extreme desperation. We need to stop neglecting the future of automation and tackle it head on!
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